Climate network and complexity based ENSO forecast for 2026

21331 8 112898 2 341082 document 112898 2602.14773v1.pdf application/pdf e648c990048848b4a432411683d1a899 MD5 797901 2026-02-18 17:20:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21331/1/2602.14773v1.pdf 21331 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

2602.14773v1.pdf

submitted 112901 1 341101 document 112901 indexcodes.txt text/plain dcc8c691faf30dd84ed8a7a957b25a8a MD5 10003 2026-02-18 17:30:14 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21331/2/indexcodes.txt 21331 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112898 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112898 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112898 archive 2 disk0/00/02/13/31 2026-02-18 17:26:50 2026-02-18 17:26:50 2026-02-18 17:26:50 article show 1 Ludescher J. Meng J. Fan J. Bunde A. Schellnhuber H.J. 2489 0000-0001-7453-4935 Climate network and complexity based ENSO forecast for 2026 pub prog_dir The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding. Recently, we have developed several statistical approaches for early ENSO forecasting, in particular, its El Niño phase. The climate network-based approach allows forecasting the onset of an El Niño event or its absence about 1 year ahead [1]. The complexity-based approach allows additionally to forecast the magnitude of an upcoming El Niño event in the calendar year before the onset [2]. Additionally, we have developed methods for forecasting the type (Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific) of an El Niño [3] and for probabilistic forecasting of La Niña and neutral events [4], also by the end of the calendar year before the event. Here we present the forecasts of these methods for 2026. The climate network and the complexity-based approach do not provide concurring signals for this year. The combined forecast indicates that a neutral event is more likely than an El Niño. If an El Niño develops in 2026, the complexity-based approach predicts a weaker event with a magnitude of 0.84±0.36°C. 2026-02-16 10.48550/arXiv.2602.14773 3723 public arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.14773 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article