Rising Air-Conditioning Use Intensifies Global Warming

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112972 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112972 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112972 archive 2 disk0/00/02/13/51 2026-02-25 14:20:23 2026-02-25 14:20:23 2026-02-25 14:20:23 article show 1 Zhang H. Shan Y. Li R. Xue R. Ma J. Kikstra J. 2256 0000-0001-9405-1228 Shi Z. Wang Z. Zhang B. Wang B. Fang S. Yang F. Hubacek K. Rising Air-Conditioning Use Intensifies Global Warming pub ECE IACC TISS Global warming and socio-economic development are together prompting a surge in the use of air-conditioning (AC). Yet the technology that delivers thermal comfort also emits large quantities of greenhouse gases (GHG), exacerbating climate change. We quantify global AC-related GHGs and associated warming impact under five climate scenarios, separating the contributions of global warming and socio-economic development. In a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP245), cumulative AC-related emissions reach 113.3 GtCO2eq between 2010 and 2050, increasing global-mean temperature by 0.05 °C (0.03 °C-0.07 °C), with only about 8.3% to climate-driven cooling demand. Income inequalities exacerbate disparities in AC use, substantially limiting access to cooling in lower-income regions. While rising incomes reduce this inequality, they increase emissions: income-driven AC growth adds 14–146 GtCO2eq and a further 0.003–0.05 °C of warming by 2050, even under SSP119. These results highlight the need for a rapid low-carbon cooling transition that balances total warming impacts with equitable cooling access. 2026-02-25 doi:10.1038/s41467-026-69393-1 3149 public Nature Communications 17 1 e1961 TRUE 2041-1723 https://github.com/JGCRI/gcam-core/releases code https://magicc.org/ code https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17899891) code info:eu-repo/semantics/article