Negative emissions to mitigate Earth system risks

21359 7 112998 2 341359 document 112998 s41467-026-69896-x_reference.pdf application/pdf 3efeb1b2fec582b7bff4768a6422bf1c MD5 1758686 2026-03-02 09:22:33 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21359/1/s41467-026-69896-x_reference.pdf 21359 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

s41467-026-69896-x_reference.pdf

accepted 113009 2 341377 document 113009 lightbox.jpg image/png afa18ddc5e07995312c823a14bfbe32b MD5 28727 2026-03-02 09:32:40 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21359/2/lightbox.jpg 21359 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112998 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112998 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112998 archive 353 disk0/00/02/13/59 2026-03-02 09:27:08 2026-03-02 09:27:08 2026-03-02 09:27:08 article show Gasser T. 2136 0000-0003-4882-2647 Rezai A. 8648 Cheritel C. 9219 Baklanov A. 2067 0000-0003-1599-3618 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Negative emissions to mitigate Earth system risks inpress ASA EM SYRR ECE IACC POPJUS EQU MIG Most climate policies are designed under a deterministic Earth system and their climate implications evaluated ex-post. Approaches that incorporate uncertainty ex-ante to anticipate Earth system risks remain underexplored. Here, we derive global climate strategies with an ex-ante approach, employing an integrated assessment framework that embeds estimates of physical uncertainty obtained through Bayesian fusion of Earth system models’ and observations’ data. These ex-ante strategies mitigate risks in the Earth system through precautionary measures unseen with the ex-post approach, in cost-benefit analysis and cost-effective implementations of various Earth system targets. Net-zero CO2 emissions must typically be reached a decade earlier, which can require up to a doubling of the near-term carbon price. Importantly, sustained and possibly century-long net-negative emissions must be planned for, albeit not to overshoot targets as in traditional scenarios but to mitigate long-term Earth system risks. This heightens the challenge faced by humanity to build a safe future within Earth system boundaries. 2026-02-26 Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41467-026-69896-x 2885 248 3391 22 219 public Nature Communications TRUE 2041-1723 Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829) Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation (Nunataryuk, H2020 773421) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820829/EU//CONSTRAIN; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/773421/EU//Nunataryuk info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess