The EU agri-food system underpins Europe’s food security, rural livelihoods and strategic autonomy, while playing a central role in the Union’s economy and land stewardship. Spanning the full value chain from the production of agricultural inputs to food waste management, it provides biomass for food and non-food purposes, represents 7% of EU gross value added, and employed 30 million people in 2023, including around 8.5 million in agriculture. It has become the third largest net-exporting industry of the EU, with net exports for food and drink products reaching EUR 48 billion in 2024. Finally, the system manages 38% of the EU’s land surface and is therefore a key steward of ecosystem services and natural resources.
Climate change is increasingly undermining these roles. More frequent and severe climate-related hazards, such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, pests and diseases, are already affecting agricultural productivity, ecosystem services and rural livelihoods. Agricultural losses from extreme weather events currently amount to around EUR 28 billion per year on average and are projected to increase to around EUR 40 billion per year on average by mid-century. Southern European regions are particularly exposed and could face catastrophic risks by 2050.
These trends challenge the assumption that existing production systems and policy frameworks can sustain food security and rural economies under a rapidly changing climate.