Drought-Driven Water Insecurity in an Emerging Indian Megacity: A Coupled Multi-Agent Systems Approach for Policy Evaluation

21383 7 113110 2 341638 document 113110 Earth s Future - 2026 - Wang - Drought‐Driven Water Insecurity in an Emerging Indian Megacity A Coupled Multi‐Agent.pdf application/pdf 30b272a8e919f46304276373dc276d15 MD5 2725449 2026-03-17 08:17:39 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21383/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202026%20-%20Wang%20-%20Drought%E2%80%90Driven%20Water%20Insecurity%20in%20an%20Emerging%20Indian%20Megacity%20%20A%20Coupled%20Multi%E2%80%90Agent.pdf 21383 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Earth s Future - 2026 - Wang - Drought‐Driven Water Insecurity in an Emerging Indian Megacity A Coupled Multi‐Agent.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113110 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113110 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113110 archive 353 disk0/00/02/13/83 2026-03-17 08:20:34 2026-03-17 08:20:34 2026-03-17 08:20:34 article show Wang A. Klassert C.J.A. Karutz R. Smilovic M. 2211 0000-0001-9651-8821 Kahil T. 2103 0000-0002-7812-5271 Burek P. 2091 0000-0001-6390-8487 Zhu Y. Zozmann H. Klauer B. Küblöck K. Omann I. Figueroa A.J. Wada Y. Naylor R. Gorelick S.M. Drought-Driven Water Insecurity in an Emerging Indian Megacity: A Coupled Multi-Agent Systems Approach for Policy Evaluation pub BNR WAT multi-agent model, water security, drought mitigation, urban growth, climate change Developing regions face critical water security challenges driven by rapid urban growth, economic development, and climate change. In India, these issues are particularly evident in Pune, the country's 9th most populated city. It is evolving into a sprawling urban agglomeration expected to grow from 7 to 11 million residents by mid-century. The city's aging water-supply system is ill-equipped to ensure water access during droughts lasting 2–3 years, particularly for residents in informal settlements. We present a policy-evaluation model to assess options for addressing future urban freshwater insecurity. The model uses a coupled multi-agent systems approach that integrates human-environment interactions and responses to future drought, population, and economic conditions. Under business-as-usual for a mid-century, multi-year drought, major reservoirs dry up and groundwater levels decrease dramatically. The water use Gini coefficient exceeds 0.5, indicating severe inequality where most low-income individuals face: (a) unaffordable water costs (10%–18% of income), (b) vulnerability (<40 L daily), and (c) prolonged shortages (>6 continuous months). Comprehensive interventions, combining supply- and demand-side measures, cut the water use Gini coefficient in half and lower water costs by two-thirds. Implementing a strategic subset of interventions creates synergies that significantly enhance water security, yet remains insufficient for the low-income population. This study highlights how growing inequalities in urban water access exacerbate water security challenges, even under a suite of mitigating measures. In all scenarios, additional drought emergency supply will be required to address water insecurity of the lowest 10% income population. 2026-03-05 published Wiley & Sons, Inc. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007976 3079 142 46 public Earth's Future 14 3 e2025EF007976 FALSE 23284277 info:eu-repo/semantics/article