Exploring patterns of distributional justice in global climate change mitigation scenarios

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113347 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113347 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113347 archive 353 disk0/00/02/14/33 2026-04-07 08:04:49 2026-04-07 08:04:49 2026-04-07 08:04:49 article show Scheifinger K. 2444 0009-0001-9464-4098 Brutschin E. 2250 0000-0001-7040-3057 Mintz-Woo K. 9148 0000-0002-9216-9561 Zimm C. 2073 0000-0001-5603-1015 Kikstra J. 2256 0000-0001-9405-1228 Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Żebrowski P. 2086 0000-0001-5283-8049 Schinko T. 8847 0000-0003-1156-7574 Pachauri S. 1816 0000-0001-8138-3178 Sovacool B. Fritz L. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Exploring patterns of distributional justice in global climate change mitigation scenarios pub ASA EM ECE IACC TISS POPJUS EQU Collective climate action hinges on the distribution of benefits and burdens of climate change mitigation. Yet assumptions relevant to distributional justice are frequently made only implicitly in climate change mitigation scenarios. Here, we introduce the patterns of the distributional justice framework that operationalize philosophical justice theories as quantitative requirements for scenario trajectories. We then apply this framework to the IPCC AR6 scenario database to assess the distributional implications of global climate change mitigation scenarios across world regions. Focusing on scenario variables related to energy and meat consumption, we found a diversity of patterns of justice across scenario characteristics. The prioritarian perspective, which prioritizes improvements to those currently worse off, emerged as the most dominant pattern of justice. By contrast, futures with limited or reduced energy and meat consumption were the least represented in the database. Our research further indicates that most scenarios consistent with patterns of justice do not explicitly aim to model more just futures, suggesting that underlying scenario narratives—most often SSP2—largely determine the distributional outcomes. We therefore propose a stakeholder engagement strategy to make distributional justice assumptions in scenario development ex-ante more diverse and transparent. Overall, this study provides a practical avenue for developing justice-conscious scenarios that may be more likely to motivate collective climate action. 2026-03-31 published doi:10.1038/s44168-026-00364-4 3638 3271 3052 347 3149 254 343 272 222 250 public npj Climate Action 5 1 e39 TRUE 2731-9814 GeoEngineering and NegatIve Emissions pathways in Europe (GENIE, H2020 951542) Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) Enabling and Leveraging Climate Action Towards Netzero Emissions (ELEVATE, HE 101056873) Bridging current knowledge gaps to enable the UPTAKE of carbon dioxide removal methods (UPTAKE, HE 101081521) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreeinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/951542/EU//GENIE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101081521/EU//UPTAKE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821471/EU//ENGAGE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056873/EU//ELEVATE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess