Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach

21455 7 113426 2 342402 document 113426 s43247-026-03189-5.pdf application/pdf b66c3e3b664aa48170b699a10bd6483e MD5 720953 2026-04-08 07:32:36 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21455/1/s43247-026-03189-5.pdf 21455 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

s43247-026-03189-5.pdf

published 113429 1 342424 document 113429 indexcodes.txt text/plain 4885ad1e1f515c6b1bd3a4c58858dfd2 MD5 15571 2026-04-08 07:42:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21455/2/indexcodes.txt 21455 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113426 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113426 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113426 archive 353 disk0/00/02/14/55 2026-04-08 07:35:09 2026-04-08 07:35:09 2026-04-08 07:35:09 article show Schädel C. Gasser T. 2136 0000-0003-4882-2647 Rogers B. Treharne R. Turetsky M. Smith T. MacDonald E. Natali S. Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach pub ASA EM ECE IACC Rapid Arctic warming is thawing carbon-rich permafrost, releasing greenhouse gases that accelerate climate change. Despite the importance of this feedback, permafrost-enabled global-scale models simulate only gradual, top-down thickening of the seasonally-thawed soil. This ignores abrupt permafrost thaw and intensifying fire regimes that combust soil carbon and further accelerate thaw. Here, we expand a compact Earth system model (OSCAR v3.0) enabling initial estimates of the impacts of abrupt thaw and wildfire, together with gradual thaw, on remaining carbon budgets consistent with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. Our model suggests that including permafrost thaw and fire-related carbon emissions reduces the remaining allowable carbon budgets from 2025 onward by 25 % +/- 12 % for avoiding 1.5 degrees C and 17 % +/- 7 % for avoiding 2.0 degrees C, relative to simulations without these processes. Accounting for these additional emissions is critical for setting emissions reduction targets aligned with the Paris Agreement. 2026-01-24 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03189-5 2885 public Communications Earth & Environment 7 1 e306 TRUE 2662-4435 Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation (Nunataryuk, H2020 773421) Response of the Earth System to overshoot, Climate neUtrality and negative Emissions (RESCUE, HE 101056939) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056939//RESCUE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/773421/EU//Nunataryuk info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess