JMIP2 Part 3: The pace of hydrogen and electricity adoption in Japan’s demand-side decarbonization

21467 6 113481 2 342539 document 113481 1-s2.0-S2666278725000509-main.pdf application/pdf 9fe48c5ee311dc94cd1fc5c6becbf881 MD5 5056531 2026-04-10 08:01:46 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21467/1/1-s2.0-S2666278725000509-main.pdf 21467 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113481 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113481 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113481 archive 2 disk0/00/02/14/67 2026-04-10 08:02:07 2026-04-10 08:02:07 2026-04-10 08:02:07 article show Cao T. Frazer E. Sugiyama M. Shiraki H. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Wada K. Hamasaki H. Kato E. Matsuo Y. Nishiura O. Okubo T. Oshiro K. Otsuki T. Sano F. JMIP2 Part 3: The pace of hydrogen and electricity adoption in Japan’s demand-side decarbonization pub ECE S3 TISS Model intercomparison project; Final energy; Hydrogen; Electrification; Net-zero scenario Reaching net-zero emissions in Japan depends on technological advancements in energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness across both energy supply and demand sectors. Previous model comparison studies in Japan did not adequately address uncertainties from technological development under the latest net-zero commitment, potentially hindering effective stakeholder decision-making. This study coordinates multiple integrated assessment and energy systems models to analyze consistent policy and technology scenarios, focusing on energy transition pathways in end-use sectors. The results show that, to meet the net-zero requirement, all models exhibit a similar trend of declining total final energy demand, with a reduction of approximately 30% by 2050 relative to 2020. Meanwhile, electricity may account for around 50% or more of the total final energy in 2050 while hydrogen could grow to approximately 13%, with growth accelerating after 2040. Hydrogen is effective in achieving deep reductions in industrial emissions, and its necessity increases as emission targets become more stringent. The government has set ambitious targets for the utilization of hydrogen, but its deployment in end-use sectors requires further policy guidance to facilitate investment. The study emphasizes that end-use energy technology transformations should align with trends in both imported clean energy costs and domestic renewable energy costs. 2025-12 published doi:10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100223 2881 public Energy and Climate Change 6 e100223 1 TRUE 26662787 Energy Demand Changes Induced by Technological and Social Innovations (EDITS) info:eu-repo/semantics/article