Future nutrient reduction needs in world's largest rivers to limit coastal eutrophication

21468 7 113493 2 342566 document 113493 Nkwasa_2026_Environ._Res.__Water_2_025004.pdf application/pdf 4cfd15ef05ddda168591d464026b664b MD5 1479108 2026-04-10 08:58:32 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21468/1/Nkwasa_2026_Environ._Res.__Water_2_025004.pdf 21468 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Nkwasa_2026_Environ._Res.__Water_2_025004.pdf

published 113494 1 342573 document 113494 indexcodes.txt text/plain 2f973c588b2951100f57bc71d957d83d MD5 13096 2026-04-10 09:08:24 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21468/2/indexcodes.txt 21468 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113493 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113493 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113493 archive 353 disk0/00/02/14/68 2026-04-10 09:03:13 2026-04-10 09:03:13 2026-04-10 09:03:13 article show Nkwasa A. 9900 0000-0002-8685-8854 Nakkazi M.T. Chawanda C.J. Tang T. 2176 0000-0002-2867-9241 Suresh K. 2337 Beusen A. Micella I. Strokal M. Kahil T. 2103 0000-0002-7812-5271 van Griensven A. Future nutrient reduction needs in world's largest rivers to limit coastal eutrophication pub BNR WAT Riverine exports of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) are major drivers of coastal eutrophication. However, few studies have quantified the reductions required to mitigate future eutrophication risks under changing socio-economic and climatic conditions. Here, we use three global water quality models (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment-Dynamic Global Nutrient Model, CoSWAT-WQ, and MARINA-Multi) to project TN and TP export loads from twenty four of the world’s largest river basins under a high-emission and high socio-economic growth scenario (SSP5-Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). Our multi-model mean projections indicate that TN and TP exports from these basins could increase by 18% and 21%, respectively, by 2050 relative to 2010 export levels. To avoid the risk of future coastal eutrophication, we estimate reductions in TN and TP riverine exports to coastal waters of approximately 67% and 64%, respectively by 2050. In particular, major river basins such as the Nile, Niger, Yangtze, Ganges, Danube, São Francisco, and Zhujiang will require nutrient load reductions exceeding 50% for both TN and TP. Ultimately, achieving the necessary nutrient reductions will require coordinated, targeted interventions to protect our global coastal ecosystems. Meanwhile, the variability among model simulations underscores the need to advance global water quality modeling frameworks to reduce uncertainties and better support science-based policy making. 2026-03-19 published IOP Science doi:10.1088/3033-4942/ae54c3 3740 3086 3399 142 public Environmental Research: Water 2 e025004 TRUE 3033-4942 Water Resources System Safe Operating Space in a Changing Climate and Society (SOS-WATER, HE 101059264) IntEgrated protection and Restoration apprOaches for natUral Lake EcoSystems (EUROLakes, HE 101157482) Inventive forecasting tools for adapting water quality management to a new climate (inventWater, H2020 956623) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101059264/EU//SOS-WATER; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101157482/EU//EUROLakes; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/956623/EU// info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess