Multi-scale scenario building for community development: Exploring transport infrastructure futures in the Circumpolar North

21500 10 113644 2 342924 document 113644 1-s2.0-S0016328726000765-main.pdf application/pdf c253352981a94f520e49e1a12f074421 MD5 10774427 2026-04-24 06:40:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21500/1/1-s2.0-S0016328726000765-main.pdf 21500 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113644 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113644 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113644 archive 2 disk0/00/02/15/00 2026-04-24 06:43:20 2026-04-24 06:51:06 2026-04-24 06:43:20 article show Strelkovskii N. 8719 0000-0001-6862-1768 Budka P. Erokhin D. 9200 0000-0002-5191-0579 Komendantova N. 1880 0000-0003-2568-6179 Meyer Al. Povoroznyuk O. Rovenskaya E. 8206 0000-0002-2761-3443 Sancho-Reinoso A. Schmid K. Schweitzer P. Multi-scale scenario building for community development: Exploring transport infrastructure futures in the Circumpolar North pub ASA CAT EM Scenario building; Multi-scale scenarios; Ethnographic fieldwork; Stakeholder engagement; Community development; Transport infrastructure The severe environment and remoteness of the Circumpolar North elevate transport infrastructure to a crucial factor in community development bridging global trends to local realities. Understanding plausible infrastructure futures is therefore key to robust development planning. To ensure realism and local relevance, scenario building requires a transdisciplinary approach. However, standard participatory methods are often hampered by practical constraints, like high resource demands and community research fatigue, necessitating more adaptive frameworks. This paper applies a methodology of consecutive translation across scales utilizing researcher-constructed, ethnographically informed scenarios as shared discussion prompts (boundary objects) for community deliberation. We developed four coherent scenario narratives for each of the circumpolar communities of Churchill, Canada and Kirkenes, Norway, spanning futures from resource extraction to environmental conservation, to decline. In community workshops, we engaged local stakeholders with these scenarios visualized through illustrations by local artists. Both communities shared a sense of being at a crossroads, voicing concerns about climate change impacts, economic sustainability, and infrastructure adaptation needs. Workshop participants in both communities assessed resource- and transportation-oriented futures as more possible than conservation and decline scenarios. Some community priorities diverged: discussions in Churchill centered on port diversification and tourism, while deliberations in Kirkenes focused on balancing industrial development with environmental preservation and transportation hub feasibility. We conclude that integrating ethnographic inquiry and artistic illustration into a pre-constructed multi-scale scenario framework prompts a meaningful community dialogue and offers a practical approach for contexts where fully participatory scenario development faces resource or feasibility constraints. 2026-06 published doi:10.1016/j.futures.2026.103834 298 3134 161 260 public Futures 180 e103834 1 TRUE 00163287 Building Arctic Futures: Transport Infrastructures and Sustainable Northern Communities (INFRANORTH, H2020 885646) PERMAFROST – POLLUTION - HEALTH (ILLUQ, HE 101133587) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/885646/EU//INFRANORTH; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101133587/EU//ILLUQ info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess