21502 7 113652 2 342951 document 113652 s41560-026-02021-w.pdf application/pdf 4a3b01406e40f98461e29bb9594a68b8 MD5 11859220 2026-04-24 07:41:27 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21502/1/s41560-026-02021-w.pdf 21502 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

s41560-026-02021-w.pdf

published 113658 1 342963 document 113658 indexcodes.txt text/plain b9c177581eb851bcba70897bd9795c27 MD5 17050 2026-04-24 07:51:21 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21502/2/indexcodes.txt 21502 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 113659 2 342964 document 113659 lightbox.jpg image/png f7a65bfe998819abf2daa970c0ac1dca MD5 60786 2026-04-24 07:52:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21502/3/lightbox.jpg 21502 3 3 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 113660 2 342965 document 113660 preview.jpg image/png fdd869182e857fe7f774c5995167bb44 MD5 24356 2026-04-24 07:52:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21502/4/preview.jpg 21502 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public

preview.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 113661 2 342966 document 113661 medium.jpg image/png 165525ac35fe10b28f3a2a1509f49435 MD5 8397 2026-04-24 07:52:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21502/5/medium.jpg 21502 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en public

medium.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 113662 2 342967 document 113662 small.jpg image/png f8cf77e55e0e3f6c576a8ed4f4e5ac62 MD5 2066 2026-04-24 07:52:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21502/6/small.jpg 21502 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113652 archive 2 disk0/00/02/15/02 2026-04-24 09:16:09 2026-04-24 09:16:09 2026-04-24 09:16:09 article show Jakhmola A. Jewell J. 8535 0000-0003-2846-9081 Vinichenko V. Cherp A. ASA CAT Despite the recent surge of wind and solar power, both technologies need to accelerate to meet climate goals. Yet, there are no robust methods to assess the likelihood of such acceleration. Here we show that renewable energy deployment follows a recurring pattern across countries with prolonged periods of relatively steady growth punctuated by growth pulses. Based on this insight and on observed growth trajectories in early adopting countries, we develop a probabilistic model (PROLONG) for projecting global wind and solar power deployment. In our central projections, both wind and solar power grow similarly to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2 °C-compatible pathways and faster than in current policy scenarios. The COP28 pledge to triple renewables by 2030 is near the 95th percentile of our projections and requires that the growth of wind and solar photovoltaics in major economies accelerate by 1.4–3 times and 2–5 times, respectively. PROLONG can be adopted for data-driven projections of other policy-dependent energy technologies. 2026-04-14 doi:10.1038/s41560-026-02021-w 136 public Nature Energy TRUE 2058-7546 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18336350 data https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18336350 code Mechanisms and Actors of Feasible Energy Transitions (MANIFEST, H2020 950408)) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/950408/EU//MANIFEST info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess