An Improved Method of Computing Multistate Survivorship Proportions for the Terminal Age Groups

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2258 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2258 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2258 archive 351 disk0/00/00/22/47 2016-01-15 01:53:18 2021-08-27 17:11:23 2016-01-15 01:53:18 monograph show 2 Just P. AL0800 Liaw K.-L. AL0231 An Improved Method of Computing Multistate Survivorship Proportions for the Terminal Age Groups pub iis_met iis_bio iis_ecn iis_pop prog_pop The aging of populations is a phenomenon which has become an important research topic. Demographers, however, have given inadequate attention to the projection of the number of old people and their future age composition. This paper shows that the conventional method for estimating the survivorship proportions of the very old tends to produce misleading results with respect to the size and composition of the aged. Several alternatives are suggested here to overcome these problems. An empirical example is used to point out the problems of the conventional approach and to evaluate the suggested improvements. 1983-07 published WP-83-065 WP-83-065 1997 2120 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 33 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book