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WP-83-004.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2323 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2323 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2323 archive 351 disk0/00/00/23/08 2016-01-15 01:53:37 2021-08-27 17:11:30 2016-01-15 01:53:37 monograph show 2 Nagy A. AL0281 pub iis_mod iis_for iis_ecn prog_sds The author was asked by the forest modelling group to present his ideas on how international trade of forest products should be modelled. It should be stressed that the ideas presented here are very preliminary ones without any detailed knowledge of the specific features of forest products. It is suggested that the preparation of the international linkage of national forest product models should start with an analysis of the historical pattern of trade. Two methods are presented: the gravitational analysis to understand better the factors influencing trade flows and the trade intensity analysis to study the bilateral pattern of trade and their evolution in time. In the second part of the paper the linkage of national models through trade flow matrices is discussed and it is suggested that information on trade intensity changes should be used also in the linkage process and estimated inconsistencies of the world market should influence the policy part of the national models. 1983-01 published WP-83-004 WP-83-004 2219 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 20 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book