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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/220 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/220 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/220 archive 351 disk0/00/00/02/35 2016-01-15 01:41:30 2021-08-27 17:07:40 2016-01-15 01:41:30 monograph show 2 Avenhaus R. AL0013 Nakicenovic N. 395 0000-0001-7176-4604 pub iis_ene iis_nuc iis_met prog_enp The IAEA nuclear material safeguards system consists basically of two different parts. One is the data verification scheme: the operators of nuclear plants report all relevant data on nuclear material processed in the plant to the safeguards authority. These data are then verified by the safeguards authority with independent measurements. The other part is the material accountability scheme: in case there are no significant differences between the operator's and the safeguards authority's data, all of the operator's data are taken for the nuclear material balance establishment. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the overall probability of detection of this system in case someone tries to divert material. This evaluation takes into account the different diversion strategies available. It is complicated because the two decision functions on which the evaluation is based -- the difference between operator's and inspector's data and the difference between book and physical inventory -- are stochastically dependent. Exact formulas are derived and applied to a realistic case; it is shown that with a good approximation, one may neglect the correlation and thus, use simplified formulas. 1975-07 published RR-75-025 RR-75-025 10 1699 214 public research_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 57 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book