The Propogation of Uncertainty in Human Mortality Processes

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2773 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2773 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2773 archive 351 disk0/00/00/27/12 2016-01-15 01:56:19 2021-08-27 17:12:29 2016-01-15 01:56:19 monograph show 2 Yashin A.I. AL1394 Manton K.G. Stallard E. The Propogation of Uncertainty in Human Mortality Processes pub iis_mod iis_bio prog_pop Human mortality and aging have frequently been modeled as stochastic diffusion processes. Estimates of the parameters of these processes have been made from various longitudinal studies. This paper shows how the stochasticity intrinsic to those processes will propagate through time and generate uncertainty about the future physiological state of the population. Variance expressions are derived for the future values of the physiological variables; and for the conditional survival functions and conditional life expectancies which reflect the uncertainty in the future values of the physiological variables. The results show that a major component of uncertainty is due to mortality. This suggests that the limits to forecasting may be different in physiological systems subject to systematic mortality than in physical systems such as weather. 1985-07 published CP-85-036 CP-85-036 2535 public collaborative_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 23 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book