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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2957 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2957 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2957 archive 351 disk0/00/00/29/06 2016-01-15 01:57:28 2021-08-27 17:12:50 2016-01-15 01:57:28 monograph show 3 Munn R.E. AL1025 pub iis_env iis_sys iis_frc iis_rsk prog_env This report examines environmental prospects for the twenty-first century, and then suggests some appropriate long-term management strategies and research priorities. A few current global trends (e.g., increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, population, agricultural production) are practically irreversible over the next couple of decades due to inertias in the systems involved. However, there are bound to be nonlinearities, discontinuities, and surprises in the behavior of many environmental and socioeconomic systems. In fact, the main challenge for managers, policy analysts, and politicians is to develop strategies that are robust in response to these surprises, exploiting the opportunities as well as softening the shocks that may arise. The main characteristics of such strategies are that they be adaptive, interdisciplinary, and cross-sectoral. As pointed out by Harvey Brooks (1986), we must avoid partial solutions that may be optimal for a particular sector or decade, but which are far from optimal for the biosphere as a whole over the long term. 1987-08 published RR-87-015 RR-87-015 10 2215 public research_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 26 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book