The Industry-Technology Life Cycle: An Integrating Meta-Model?

2910 12 2961 2 5871 document 2961 RR-87-003.pdf application/pdf 0ffc6cbacbc89d8977d2cd6449236e76 MD5 1324806 2016-01-15 01:57:30 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2910/1/RR-87-003.pdf 2910 1 1 text en public

RR-87-003.pdf

14 18898 2 30628 document 18898 lightbox.jpg image/png 9e512f084a2bb299af96083f110be374 MD5 9552 2016-01-15 13:32:24 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2910/2/lightbox.jpg 2910 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

indexcodes.txt

RR-87-003.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2961 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2961 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2961 archive 351 disk0/00/00/29/10 2016-01-15 01:57:30 2021-08-27 17:12:51 2016-01-15 01:57:30 monograph show 2 Ayres R.U. 1324 The Industry-Technology Life Cycle: An Integrating Meta-Model? pub iis_mod iis_mnt iis_inn iis_ecn prog_tes This report attempts to answer a rather deep question: To what extent can "pure" economics explain economic growth and technological change? By "pure" economics, it is meant the relationships governing the behavior of abstract entities, producing abstract products or services for sale in an idealized competitive market. Pure economics, in the above sense, admits R&D and innovations of an unspecified kind; it also admits improvements (unspecified) and learning curves or experience curves. The report concludes, however, that the dynamic behavior of the product "life cycle" in specific cases, and the observed clustering of innovations in particular fields at particular times, with periods of rapid progress followed by slow-downs, can only be explained by also taking into account the preexisting state of technology, and the laws of nature. It is argued that technological progress is marked not only by processes of relatively predictable incremental improvement (e.g., "learning curves"), but also by a series of discrete "barriers" and "breakthroughs". These are not random events, although their exact timing is undoubtedly very difficult to predict. The technological life cycle can be defined as the period from a major breakthrough opening up a new territory for exploitation to the next major barrier. It is characterized, in part, by a high initial marginal productivity of R&D, and a more or less continuous decline thereafter, as the territory is gradually exhausted. This model is qualitatively consistent with the well-known "S-shaped curve" phenomenon, describing measures of technological performance over time, as well as a number of other observed phenomena. 1987-03 published RR-87-003 RR-87-003 10 1136 public research_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 39 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book