On Spatial Modelling of Long-Term Forest Fire Dynamics

2947 20 2986 3 5933 document 2986 WP-87-105.pdf application/pdf 42ef7b9553dccfbbc269b8bb216c0b10 MD5 492455 2016-01-15 01:57:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2947/1/WP-87-105.pdf 2947 1 1 text en public

WP-87-105.pdf

22 ca009b21e02d2df31ebb9fd83b148b091e353339 18775 2 30505 document 18775 lightbox.jpg image/png 32b5f9d94105d229b87a7b65af0b2473 MD5 12891 2016-01-15 13:27:53 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2947/2/lightbox.jpg 2947 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

indexcodes.txt

WP-87-105.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2986 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2986 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/2986 archive 351 disk0/00/00/29/47 2016-01-15 01:57:43 2021-08-27 17:12:55 2016-01-15 01:57:43 monograph show 2 Antonovsky M.Y. 1163 Ter-Mikhaelian M.T. On Spatial Modelling of Long-Term Forest Fire Dynamics pub iis_mod iis_for iis_env prog_mon prog_ysp The dynamics of forest fires over large territories is of great practical interest. Previous theoretical works are concerned mainly with point source fire models, and the transition from point source to area models -- large scale -- even simple models, is a shift forward. Certainly, the term "simple" has relative meaning in that it is relative to the level of achievement in an applied domain. However, it is very interesting that, to the authors, even such a simplified model appears not very trivial. As regards the stable state of the forest and the dependence of fire probability on the age of the forest, this conclusion can only be checked with models, as the time required for natural observations is much too long. In the model described in this paper, we do not claim to have created a quantitative model with which we could give a prognosis of the dynamics of specific forest regions. However, we can say that we have reached the following conclusions: 1. The absence of contemporary boreal forest of stable (in the absence of constant in time age-structure of forest) state, instead of that -- the stable fire regime, which is characterized by the large amount of fire year with little fired territory during the year, and irregular fires of great intensity. An explanation in the frame of a model -- effects like "synchronization" of forest formed processing (it must be an accumulation of a large amount of combustible material over a large area). In our model this regime has settled after 2000 years (steps) and long-term support (>10000). 2. The probability of burning a forest increases monotonically with increase in forest age. For a more accurate quantitative description of fire dynamics in forests, we must of course take into account the different primary and secondary succession lines, their ecological characteristics, climate fluctuations and so on. 1987-11 published WP-87-105 WP-87-105 10 1115 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 20 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book