Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy

3075 21 52183 2 147501 document 52183 RR-88-007.pdf application/pdf 886e269037f98709ff0d5dbf812d97d9 MD5 5053869 2016-05-03 07:46:35 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/3075/1/RR-88-007.pdf 3075 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

RR-88-007.pdf

published 52184 2 147504 document 52184 lightbox.jpg image/png 450745282bac8b50a8c45152e6a1311b MD5 49787 2016-05-03 07:46:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/3075/2/lightbox.jpg 3075 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/52183 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/52183 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/52183 archive 351 disk0/00/00/30/75 2016-01-15 01:58:33 2021-08-27 17:13:09 2016-01-15 01:58:33 monograph show 2 Ausubel J.H. AL0460 Grubler A. 1115 0000-0002-7814-4990 Nakicenovic N. 395 0000-0001-7176-4604 Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy pub iis_ecn iis_ene iis_rsk prog_dot prog_tes Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first ("efficiency") scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second ("long wave") they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO2 concentrations in a "methane economy" are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with long-wave theories in economics. 1988 published RR-88-007. Reprinted from Climatic Change, 12 (3). pp. 245-263 RP-88-007 10 1698 112 214 public research_reprint Climatic Change 12 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 22 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book