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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3253 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3253 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3253 archive 351 disk0/00/00/32/07 2016-01-15 01:59:15 2021-08-27 17:13:25 2016-01-15 01:59:15 monograph show 2 Nijkamp P. AL0290 Soeteman F. pub iis_env iis_frc iis_ecl prog_enc Many attempts have been made in the past decade to model or to replicate the complexity of dynamic economic-environmental systems, but the strategic components (e.g., key forces, surprises and boundaries) were not adequately included, so that these models failed to provide effective and preventive environmental policies. Consequently, mega-trend analysis at a meso level focusing on the qualitative changes and major directions of influence is -- from a strategic policy viewpoint -- more important than seemingly precise model predictions which are usually bound to fail. This implies that joint expert views (e.g. based on strategic scientific forum analysis) and long-term cross-national comparative studies may often provide more appropriate information than conventional analytical tools. These ideas will be further elaborated in this paper in the framework of land use problems. 1988-06 published CP-88-002 CP-88-002 10 2236 public collaborative_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 31 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book