The Uncertainty of Atmospheric Source-Receptor Relationships in Europe

3366 18 59911 2 166505 document 59911 RR-91-02.pdf application/pdf ab646af54df00c6a34778a7f0a4eb0a4 MD5 10070037 2016-06-02 11:17:36 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/3366/1/RR-91-02.pdf 3366 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

RR-91-02.pdf

published 59912 2 166508 document 59912 lightbox.jpg image/png 7ef3c49c78dc3c6944b09d243ffce857 MD5 10831 2016-06-02 11:18:11 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/3366/2/lightbox.jpg 3366 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/59911 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/59911 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/59911 archive 351 disk0/00/00/33/66 2016-01-15 02:00:27 2021-08-27 17:13:44 2016-01-15 02:00:27 monograph show 2 Alcamo J. AL0441 Bartnicki J. AL0475 The Uncertainty of Atmospheric Source-Receptor Relationships in Europe pub iis_env iis_mod TAP This report investigates the composite uncertainty of a long range transport model of sulfur in Europe. This composite uncertainty includes the effect on model output of uncertain transport wind, meteorological forcing functions, parameters, and spatial distribution of emissions. Other sources of uncertainty are omitted in the analysis. Stochastic simulation is used for computations. The combined effect of these uncertainties on total annual sulfur deposition at three receptors ranged from about 10 to 20% (coefficient of variation). In comparing the effects of different uncertainties on annual model output, meteorological forcing functions were found to be the least important because of their frequent temporal variation in the model. The stochastic procedure was also used to compute the uncertainty of transfer coefficients for 30 source-receptor combinations; their relative uncertainty ranged from about 10 to 30% and was not correlated with distance. However, their absolute uncertainty (standard deviation) was strongly correlated with distance and was found to be proportional to the values of transfer coefficients themselves. This insight was used to develop a simple method for estimating the uncertainty of sulfur deposition calculated with transfer matrix. This method was then used to evaluate the `reliability' of emission reduction scenarios in reducing deposition. 1990 published RR-91-002. Reprinted from Atmospheric Environment, 24A(8) [1990] RP-91-002 Reprinted from Atmospheric Environment; 24A(8) [1990] 10 1685 1710 public research_reprint Atmospheric Environment 24A(8) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 24 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book