Long Waves, Technology Diffusion, and Substitution

3496 10 3522 1 7018 document 3522 RP-91-017.pdf application/pdf a81ff26688b7302fda965eb80b599d1a MD5 2220366 2016-01-15 02:01:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/3496/1/RP-91-017.pdf 3496 1 1 text en public

RP-91-017.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3522 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3522 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3522 archive 351 disk0/00/00/34/96 2016-01-15 02:01:01 2021-08-27 17:13:58 2016-01-15 02:01:01 monograph show 3 Grubler A. 1115 0000-0002-7814-4990 Nakicenovic N. 395 0000-0001-7176-4604 Long Waves, Technology Diffusion, and Substitution pub iis_mnt iis_ecn iis_ecl prog_ecs There is an urgent need to drastically reduce adverse environmental impacts resulting from prevailing economic activities. Even more important is the question of the future direction of economic development and technological changes. In this paper the authors argue, from a historical perspective, that this process will remain discontinuous and spatially heterogeneous, as a result of diverse policies and strategies. The authors illustrate empirically the argument that the process of economic growth and technological change is not smooth and continuous. They demonstrate that various phases of economic expansion are driven by the host of interrelated clusters of technologies and that the timing of the transition from one dominant cluster to another is consistent with the pattern of Kondratieff long waves. The paper also illustrates that we are currently moving away from the old, materials- and energy-intensive development trajectory to a new future. There is a need to progressively close the industrial-ecology cycle and there are indications that this may indeed be possible, given the promotion of a range of carefully selected technological and policy measures for achieving sustainable development. 1991 published RR-91-017. Reprinted from Review, XIV(2):313-342 [Spring 1991]. RP-91-017 Reprinted from Review; XIV(2):313-342 [Spring 1991] 10 112 214 public research_reprint Review IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 36 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book