An Exploratory Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

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RR-91-11.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/59951 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/59951 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/59951 archive 351 disk0/00/00/34/98 2016-01-15 02:01:02 2021-08-27 17:13:58 2016-01-15 02:01:02 monograph show 2 Antonovsky M.Y. 1163 Buchstaber V.M. AL1752 An Exploratory Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations pub iis_env iis_cli iis_mod prog_enc A new methodological approach for analysis of monitoring data is discussed. The main ideas are illustrated for the example of the CO2 problem. The analysis of CO2 concentrations obtained from a global network of monitoring stations permitted the authors to construct a nonparametric evaluation of the spatial-temporal distribution of this field. They propose a parabolic parametrization of the long-term tendency of this field as a function of time (in one-year time steps). A function of the predicitve ability of a model is defined on the basis of the technique of "supervised training". This function is computed for a parabolic model and it is shown that this model constructed for the first 15 years of observations evaluates the tendency for the next 15 years quite well. The main problem that is solved in this paper is how to correlate the projections of different models for the carbon cycle and different scenarios of the annual release of carbon into the atmosphere with the projection that reflect parametrization of the trends of CO2-monitoring data. 1991 published RR-91-011. Reprinted from Tellus B, 43(2):171-187 [1991] 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1991.00011.x RP-91-011 [doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889.1991.00011.x] 10 1115 2870 public research_reprint Tellus B 43 2 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 171-187 20 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book