3595 11 60049 2 166691 document 60049 RR-93-09.pdf application/pdf 3f57911e909695ba82ea1a31369a07e5 MD5 3788247 2016-06-02 12:02:41 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/3595/1/RR-93-09.pdf 3595 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

RR-93-09.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60049 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60049 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60049 archive 351 disk0/00/00/35/95 2016-01-15 02:01:39 2021-08-27 17:14:08 2016-01-15 02:01:39 monograph show 2 Schrattenholzer L. AL1189 pub iis_ene iis_mod prog_ecs In 1981 the Energy Systems Program at IIASA published five scenarios of global energy demand and supply for the period 1975-2030. At least two of them, the high and low scenarios, are still quoted today. This report analyses how accurately the IIASA scenarios of 1981 captured the actual development during the first 15 years of their time horizon. Those parts of the scenarios that refer to developments still in the future are also compared with current views of the long-term development of the global energy system as expressed in recent results collected by the International Energy Workshop (IEW). The comparisons show that the low scenario of 1981 came closest to actual developments up to 1990. With the exception of nuclear energy, its further projections fall well within the range of today's global energy scenarios. 1992 published RR-93-009. Reprinted from International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 4(3):188-197 [1992]. RP-93-009 Reprinted from International Journal of Global Energy Issues; 4(3):188-197 [1992] 10 2366 public research_reprint International Journal of Global Energy Issues 4 3 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 188-197 15 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book