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WP-92-044.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3676 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3676 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3676 archive 351 disk0/00/00/36/54 2016-01-15 02:02:00 2021-08-27 17:14:14 2016-01-15 02:02:00 monograph show 2 Goldberg L.S. Karimov I. 1466 pub iis_ecn iis_mod prog_eti In the former Soviet Union and throughout Eastern Europe, black-market exchange rates and second-economy prices often are interpreted by policy-makers as indicative of post-reform levels. However, these exchange rates and prices can provide highly-biased signals for policy setting. These biases are especially important when exchange rates fixed on the basis of these signals are expected to play a nominal anchor role during stabilizations. This paper traces the paths and biases in black-market exchange rates, second-economy prices, hoarding stocks, and privately-held dollars balances after policy-initiatives or other changes in the economic environment are implemented. The stimuli studied are official exchange-rate adjustments, price reforms, foreign-aid packages, altered risks of monetary confiscation or currency reforms, and goods-supply related initiatives. We provide the conditions under which announcements of reform lead short-run prices or exchange rates to overshoot or to undershoot their long-run equilibrium levels. 1992-07 published WP-92-044 WP-92-044 10 1360 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 44 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book