Estimation of GCM Temperature Trends for Different Emission Scenarios with the help of the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE)

3687 26 3714 3 7401 document 3714 WP-92-011.pdf application/pdf 11cc6342f1cbe7f4944e65ca57002d1c MD5 931943 2016-01-15 02:02:13 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/3687/1/WP-92-011.pdf 3687 1 1 text en public

WP-92-011.pdf

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WP-92-011.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3714 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3714 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3714 archive 351 disk0/00/00/36/87 2016-01-15 02:02:13 2021-08-27 17:14:18 2016-01-15 02:02:13 monograph show 2 Fleischmann K. AL0651 Nitschke U. AL1051 Jonas M. 1351 0000-0003-1269-4145 Olendrzynski K. 1415 Shaw R.W. AL1207 Estimation of GCM Temperature Trends for Different Emission Scenarios with the help of the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) pub iis_env iis_mod iis_cli prog_ecd How useful are General Circulation Models (GCMs) for policy makers? Of course, they are considered to be the most powerful models that are presently available for predicting future climates and for carrying out research. Their disadvantage is that they are very time-consuming and very expensive to run for any greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenario. For that reason, GCMs have been run only for a small number of scenarios. However, policy makers are interested in being able to analyze a large number of scenarios. The Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) developed by the National Institute for Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) in the Netherlands is a scientifically based, policy oriented model that can calculate the effect of different greenhouse gas emissions on global surface air temperature and sea level rise. The major advantage of IMAGE is its quick turnaround time. Its disadvantage is that it gives only global values of surface temperature and sea level rise, which have insufficient spatial resolution to estimate ecological impacts on a regional basis. We propose a methodology for combining the fast turnaround time and time-dependent surface temperature results of IMAGE with the spatial resolution of GCMs to provide a linkage between IMAGE and models of ecological change that could provide policy-makers with valuable information about the consequences of different levels of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. 1992-01 published WP-92-011 WP-92-011 10 1878 2241 138 1489 2380 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 33 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book