How Likely are Catastrophes? Natura Non Facit Saltus

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/382 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/382 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/382 archive 351 disk0/00/00/03/78 2016-01-15 01:42:19 2021-08-27 17:07:57 2016-01-15 01:42:19 monograph show 2 Anonymous http://www.loc.gov/loc.terms/relators/DPT Swain H. How Likely are Catastrophes? Natura Non Facit Saltus pub iis_env prog_gen Although catastrophes are a research topic of the greatest current importance, it can be asked: how likely is it that a given situation will contain a catastrophe? Casual observation, such as that of Aristotle, indicates that catastrophes are indeed quite rare. In fact, this intuition can be quite rigorously justified if we take care to define likely. In what follows we examine the likelihood of a catastrophe occurring in a very general dynamic model. 1975 published WP-75-050 WP-75-050 10 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 8 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book