Estimating the Uncertainty in Population Projections by Resampling Methods

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3875 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3875 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3875 archive 351 disk0/00/00/41/06 2016-01-15 02:04:07 2023-08-05 05:00:22 2016-01-15 02:04:07 monograph show 2 Goldstein J.R. 1533 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Pflug G.C. 1361 0000-0001-8215-3550 Estimating the Uncertainty in Population Projections by Resampling Methods pub iis_met iis_pop prog_pop This paper proposes a new approach to introducing quantitatively measured uncertainty into population projections. It is to a lesser degree based on past time-series than other approaches, since it uses random walk models for migration, mortality and fertility, for which upper and lower bounds are defined. No parametric distribution is fitted to the observations, but the random walk is resampled from the past data. By putting bounds on the level that fertility can reach in the future, further substantive information is introduced that transcends the information derived from the observed time series. By sampling 10.000 path of the random walks in fertility, mortality and migration, the distributions of population size and structure up to 2050 for Austria, Mauritius and USA are estimated. 1994-10 published WP-94-106 WP-94-106 10 1291 190 229 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 25 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book