Predictability, Complexity, and Catastrophe in a Collapsible Model of Population, Development, and Environmental Interactions

4136 22 3905 3 8041 document 3905 WP-94-075.pdf application/pdf f7b552ac0e05e7cef652febde705d93a MD5 1026182 2016-01-15 02:04:15 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4136/1/WP-94-075.pdf 4136 1 1 text en public

WP-94-075.pdf

22 7df99ec983afe7d0b5b243cfc8e0fa11676101be 10623 2 18624 document 10623 lightbox.jpg image/png 69cb6038f6e7536683bc40fbe0708710 MD5 15739 2016-01-15 06:37:03 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4136/2/lightbox.jpg 4136 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 10624 2 18625 document 10624 preview.jpg image/png 2f469367f06b89756d865967c8f542c8 MD5 7765 2016-01-15 06:37:04 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4136/3/preview.jpg 4136 3 3 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public

preview.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 10625 2 18626 document 10625 medium.jpg image/png cb1cb0457fceb9f628038730d970c25b MD5 2543 2016-01-15 06:37:05 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4136/4/medium.jpg 4136 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en public

medium.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 10626 2 18627 document 10626 small.jpg image/png 39a6583e93acc3b682a11428062cd2ed MD5 1031 2016-01-15 06:37:06 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4136/5/small.jpg 4136 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 10627 1 18628 document 10627 indexcodes.txt text/x-pascal e9ff5951d6dcb7963cc451a067b0e5ab MD5 9728 2016-01-15 06:37:07 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4136/6/indexcodes.txt 4136 6 6 text/x-pascal other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 81454 2 228413 document 81454 WP-94-075.pdf application/pdf 81bfc0a2502f6d39bfa868ae66a879d3 MD5 1722576 2018-03-13 16:01:15 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4136/7/WP-94-075.pdf 4136 7 7 application/pdf other Coversheet version en public

WP-94-075.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3905 archive 351 disk0/00/00/41/36 2016-01-15 02:04:15 2021-08-27 17:14:51 2016-01-15 02:04:15 monograph show 3 Sanderson W.C. 1631 Predictability, Complexity, and Catastrophe in a Collapsible Model of Population, Development, and Environmental Interactions pub iis_env iis_mod iis_pop prog_pop More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various methodologies. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident in the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals. Indeed, even calling them confidence intervals is quite misleading. 1994-08 published WP-94-075 WP-94-075 10 265 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 34 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book