Bayesian Analysis of the Ricker Stock-Recruitment Model

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/470 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/470 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/470 archive 351 disk0/00/00/04/51 2016-01-15 01:42:45 2021-08-27 17:08:08 2016-01-15 01:42:45 monograph show 2 Wood E.F. AL0423 Bayesian Analysis of the Ricker Stock-Recruitment Model pub iis_ecl iis_met iis_mod prog_ren Bayesian statistics were applied to analyze the Ricker stock-recruitment model. This model is used for salmon fishery management and predicts the resulting recruits for a specified level of spawners. The Ricker model is transformed into a linear regression form, and the uncertainty in the model parameters and the "noise" of the model are calculated using Bayesian regression analysis. Application to the Skeena River Sockeye fishing with 67 years of data showed that parameter uncertainty was much less than model noise, thus putting in question the applicability of the Ricker model for management decisions. The analysis is extended to experimentation on the "optimal" spawning level, non-stationarity of the fishery, and model uncertainty. 1975-11 published RM-75-065 RM-75-065 10 2525 public research_memorandum IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 21 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book