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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4338 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4338 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4338 archive 351 disk0/00/00/52/14 2016-01-15 02:08:51 2021-08-27 17:16:01 2016-01-15 02:08:51 monograph show 4 van den Bosch F. Metz J.A.J. 7506 Zadoks J.C. pub iis_ecl iis_mod prog_adn An analytical model of a pandemic, initiated by a single focus and spreading over a continent, is developed, using foci as the smallest units of disease and fields as the smallest units of host. A few generalizing assumptions lead to a parameter sparse model which may answer general questions on pandemics in a qualitative manner. For pandemic spread of disease during one season a `within-season velocity of pandemic spread', C, is expressed in a set of integral equations. Reduction of inoculum during the off-season is expressed by a `survival ratio' of inoculum, epsilon. The effect of the off-season is a `push-back' of the pandemic front over a distance dh. It will be shown how dh is related to C and epsilon. The mean pandemic spread over successive years is calculated as the `polyetic velocity of pandemic spread', V, which depends on C and the push-back distance. The concept of `pandemic effectiveness' is parameterized. Relations between the two velocities of pandemic spread and several models are studied. Velocities of pandemic spread depend in a limited way on field density represented by the `cropping ratio' zeta. A general conclusion is that eradication and containment of a beginning pandemic becomes more difficult when the pandemic effectiveness of the disease is high, the tail of the spore dispersal probability distribution is long, the the sanitation during the off-season is poor, and the growing or epidemic season is long. 1997-11 published IR-97-083 IR-97-083 206 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 29 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book