5298 10 60367 2 167122 document 60367 RR-97-11.pdf application/pdf 0ce3d3c042efff70254c4a3cf387efc2 MD5 4756130 2016-06-02 12:56:31 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5298/1/RR-97-11.pdf 5298 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

RR-97-11.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60367 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60367 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60367 archive 351 disk0/00/00/52/98 2016-01-15 02:09:14 2021-08-27 17:16:10 2016-01-15 02:09:14 monograph show 2 Marchetti C. 1619 pub iis_mod iis_pop prog_ins The increase in life expectancy at all ages during the last two centuries is in need of a quantitative model capable of resuming the whole process under a single concept and simple mathematics. The basic hypothesis was that through improved hygiene, medicine, and life-style, the stumbling blocks to the full expression of longevity were progressively removed. The mathematics of learning processes were then applied to the secular evolution of life expectancy at various ages. The hypothesis proved very fertile. Logistic equations fit long strings of statistical data, covering the evolution of life expectancy at various ages, for both sexes, and in many European nations for almost two centuries. These life expectancy increases seem to move progressively to a common asymptote of around 79 years for men and around 84 years for women. It is suggested that these values are taken as a definition of longevity, presumably explicating a coding in DNA. The evolution of life expectancy during the last couple of centuries appears to follow consistent paths precisely mapped with simple mathematics. This opens the way to more integrated and holistic theories. 1997 published RR-97-011. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 55(3) [July 1997]. RP-97-011 Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change; 55(3) [July 1997] 10 195 public research_reprint Technological Forecasting and Social Change 55 3 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 20 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book