Doubling of World Population Unlikely

5299 12 60361 2 167114 document 60361 RR-97-10.pdf application/pdf 3df60352f0ae538a966476c715b37e86 MD5 2023000 2016-06-02 12:56:03 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5299/1/RR-97-10.pdf 5299 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

RR-97-10.pdf

published 60362 2 167117 document 60362 lightbox.jpg image/png 31bc09f22b7e74a223d1a51f93f200b4 MD5 12582 2016-06-02 12:56:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5299/2/lightbox.jpg 5299 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60361 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60361 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60361 archive 351 disk0/00/00/52/99 2016-01-15 02:09:14 2023-08-05 05:00:27 2016-01-15 02:09:14 monograph show 2 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Sanderson W.C. 1631 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 Doubling of World Population Unlikely pub iis_mod iis_pop prog_pop Most national and international agencies producing population projections explicitly avoid addressing the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium, and high variants, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition. Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, and on the 90% uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century. 1997 published RR-97-010. Reprinted from Nature; 387(6635):803-805 (19 June 1997) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v387/n6635/full/387803a0.html RP-97-010 Reprinted from Nature; 387(6635):803-805 (19 June 1997) <www.nature.com/nature/journal/v387/n6635/full/387803a0.html> 10 190 265 270 public research_reprint Nature 387 6635 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 803-805 8 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book