An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections: The Example of Austria

5656 12 60403 2 167170 document 60403 RR-98-10.pdf application/pdf d5f42094848edcade0e94e19b2ab539f MD5 7904657 2016-06-02 13:00:35 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5656/1/RR-98-10.pdf 5656 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

RR-98-10.pdf

published 60404 2 167173 document 60404 lightbox.jpg image/png 25b954f497fbfe28ce0d226ae483c4d0 MD5 17079 2016-06-02 13:00:45 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5656/2/lightbox.jpg 5656 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60403 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60403 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60403 archive 351 disk0/00/00/56/56 2016-01-15 02:10:36 2023-08-05 05:00:28 2016-01-15 02:10:36 monograph show 2 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections: The Example of Austria pub iis_pop prog_pop The traditional method of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through high and low variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty these alternative paths are assumed to cover. The probabilistic approaches have not yet found their way into official population projections. This paper proposes an expert-based probabilistic approach that seems to meet important criteria for successful application to national and international projections: (1) it provides significant advantages over current practice; (2) it presents an evolution of current practice rather than a discontinuity; (3) it is scientifically sound; and (4) it is applicable to all countries. In a recent Nature article (Lutz et al., 1997) this method was applied to 13 world regions. This paper discusses the applicability to national projections by directly taking the alternative assumptions defined by the Austrian Statistical Office. Sensitivity analyses that resolve some methodological questions about the approach are also presented. 1998-03 published RR-98-010. Reprinted from European Journal of Population; 14(1):1-17 (March 1998) 10.1023/A:1006040321755 RP-98-010 Reprinted from European Journal of Population; 14(1):1-17 (March 1998) [doi:10.1023/A:1006040321755] 10 190 270 public research_reprint European Journal of Population 14 1 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 1-17 20 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book