Pandemics of focal plant disease: A model

5701 6 70392 2 195018 document 70392 Pandemics of Focal Plant Disease.pdf application/pdf 6aafa8576c426bb638aea9a5fa69942c MD5 247652 2016-08-26 11:49:19 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5701/1/Pandemics%20of%20Focal%20Plant%20Disease.pdf 5701 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Pandemics of Focal Plant Disease.pdf

published 70393 2 195021 document 70393 lightbox.jpg image/png 62fd43925589c9a85205b9dc240f4b06 MD5 60942 2016-08-26 11:49:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5701/2/lightbox.jpg 5701 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70392 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70392 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70392 archive 351 disk0/00/00/57/01 2016-01-15 02:10:44 2021-08-27 17:16:35 2016-01-15 02:10:44 article show 2 van den Bosch F. Metz J.A.J. 7506 Zadoks J.C. Pandemics of focal plant disease: A model pub iis_ecl iis_mod prog_adn Disease spread; Overseasoning; Sanitation; Seasonality An analytical model of a pandemic, initiated by a single focus and spreading over a continent, is developed using foci as the smallest units of disease and fields as the smallest units of host. A few generalizing assumptions lead to a parameter-sparse model that may answer general questions on pandemics in a qualitative manner. For pandemic spread of disease during one season, a 'within-season velocity of pandemic spread,' C, is expressed as a set of integral equations. Reduction of inoculum during the off-season is expressed by a 'survival ratio' of inoculum, e. The effect of the off-season is a 'push-back' of the pandemic front over a distance delta h. It will be shown how delta h is related to C and e. The mean pandemic spread over successive years is calculated as the 'polyetic velocity of pandemic spread,' V, which depends on C and the push-back distance. The concept of 'pandemic effectiveness' is parameterized. Relations between the two velocities of pandemic spread and several model parameters are studied. Somewhat unexpectedly, velocities of pandemic spread depend only in a very limited way on field density represented by the 'cropping ratio' x. This implies that our model and methods will also apply to situations with inhomogeneous field distributions. The effect of parameter values on rates of severity increase are analyzed. Finally, generalizations of the model are developed and their applications discussed. 1999-06 published American Phytopathological Society 10.1094/PHYTO.1999.89.6.495 XJ-99-055 [doi:10.1094/PHYTO.1999.89.6.495]. Also available as IIASA Interim Report IR-97-083 <www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-97-083.pdf> 206 public Phytopathology 89 6 495-505 TRUE 0031-949X FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article