The need to reassess the role of the population variable in global development

5747 8 70482 2 195145 document 70482 The need to reassess the role of the population variable in global development.pdf application/pdf 4148a9e2e80e263f9059a32d5af4997f MD5 2853374 2016-08-29 13:13:07 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5747/1/The%20need%20to%20reassess%20the%20role%20of%20the%20population%20variable%20in%20global%20development.pdf 5747 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

The need to reassess the role of the population variable in global development.pdf

published 70483 2 195148 document 70483 lightbox.jpg image/png a5eda90c75b074768cf607b8ab7abb1e MD5 57752 2016-08-29 13:13:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5747/2/lightbox.jpg 5747 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70482 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70482 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70482 archive 351 disk0/00/00/57/47 2016-01-15 02:10:54 2023-08-05 05:00:28 2016-01-15 02:10:54 article show 1 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 The need to reassess the role of the population variable in global development pub iis_pop prog_pop Demographic factors; Demography; Development plans; Malthusianism; Population; Population dynamics; Population growth; Population theory; Social sciences In the 1970s thinking about the future global population trends and the environment was largely influenced by The Limits to Growth, a report presented at the Club of Rome. It is based on an economic, demographic and environmental simulation model, called World3, which is applied to the world taken as a whole. However, discrepancies have been noted in such a model and modelers have learned many lessons since the application of the model in 1970s. These lessons include the following: that the world is much too heterogeneous to apply the same behavioral equations to different parts of the world; that the model should not be too highly integrated; and that an intersectoral model should also satisfy the sectoral disciplinary concerns. In a probabilistic outlook of future global population growth and aging, uncertainties involved in the calculations of projections are dealt with by presenting the alternative scenarios of unknown probability and the high and low variants in addition to the medium variant. In addition, such an approach is more intensively based on expert judgement and captures the possibilities of Malthusian checks. In conclusion, the author states that the probabilistic method is a more differentiated approach that may contribute to moving further beyond the simplistic controversy surrounding the Malthusian theory. 1999 published http://ojs.tsv.fi/index.php/fyp/article/view/44933 XJ-99-003 Yearbook of Population Research in Finland 1998-1999; 35:30-38 (1999) 190 public Yearbook of Population Research in Finland 35 30-38 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article