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RR-00-05.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60482 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60482 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60482 archive 351 disk0/00/00/59/41 2016-01-15 02:11:38 2023-08-05 05:00:30 2016-01-15 02:11:38 monograph show 1 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 pub iis_pop prog_pop This report presents the first probabilistic population forecasts for the European Union following the approach of expert-based probabilistic projections as developed at IIASA. The central, high and low assumptions used for future fertility, mortality and migration correspond essentially to those of Eurostat. These high-low ranges were assumed to cover 67% and 90% of all future paths, depending on the model. The results show convincingly that very significant population aging over the coming decades is not just a scenario of unknown probability, but is practically a certainty. By 2050 the proportion above age 60 is likely to increase by about 60% whereas the proportion of children and youngsters will fall by about 20%. This trend is much less uncertain for the elderly than for the young. 1999 published RR-00-005. Reprinted from Compendium of Family Studies in Austria 1999; Schriftenreihe Nr. 7, Austrian Institute for Family Studies, Vienna, Austria pp.123-139 (1999) http://www.oif.ac.at/fileadmin/OEIF/schriften/Schrift7.pdf RP-00-005 Reprinted from Compendium of Family Studies in Austria 1999; Schriftenreihe Nr. 7, Austrian Institute for Family Studies, Vienna, Austria pp.123-139 (1999) <www.oif.ac.at/fileadmin/OEIF/schriften/Schrift7.pdf> 10 190 270 public research_reprint Compendium of Family Studies in Austria 1999 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 20 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book