599 12 619 2 1217 document 619 PP-76-004.pdf application/pdf 9489e63446789897f9627c28146fb900 MD5 534840 2016-01-15 01:43:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/599/1/PP-76-004.pdf 599 1 1 text en public
PP-76-004.pdf
19 29097 1 40829 document 29097 indexcodes.txt text/x-pascal d1ce3bcf1443c134337e23ba0e5b20e3 MD5 4495 2016-01-15 22:33:21 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/599/2/indexcodes.txt 599 2 2 text/x-pascal other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public
indexcodes.txt
http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 29107 2 40839 document 29107 lightbox.jpg image/png c398e79753a3b47871233b51f788ed6c MD5 13238 2016-01-15 22:33:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/599/3/lightbox.jpg 599 3 3 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public
lightbox.jpg
http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 29108 2 40840 document 29108 preview.jpg image/png 851df41b3cf4427617d9c9a262b1e4c3 MD5 5486 2016-01-15 22:33:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/599/4/preview.jpg 599 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public
preview.jpg
http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 29109 2 40841 document 29109 medium.jpg image/png 5a41402bf22e9a7266bf46fb32ed139c MD5 2348 2016-01-15 22:33:45 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/599/5/medium.jpg 599 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en public
medium.jpg
http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 29110 2 40842 document 29110 small.jpg image/png 62856b5608bc706b70ee644b3f47da4a MD5 960 2016-01-15 22:33:46 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/599/6/small.jpg 599 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public
small.jpg
http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 73058 2 201494 document 73058 PP-76-004.pdf application/pdf acd8d0cd41e458bff01e6ec84c79edd4 MD5 813568 2016-11-04 15:37:51 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/599/7/PP-76-004.pdf 599 7 7 application/pdf other Coversheet Pages conversion from text to application/pdf en public
PP-76-004.pdf
http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/619 archive 351 disk0/00/00/05/99 2016-01-15 01:43:34 2021-08-27 17:08:23 2016-01-15 01:43:34 monograph show 3 Ledolter J. AL0225 Box G.E.P. Conditions for the Optimality of Exponential Smoothing Forecast Procedures pub iis_met iis_frc prog_sds Exponential smoothing procedures, in particular those recommended by Brown are used extensively in many areas of economics, business and engineering. It is shown in this paper that: (i) Brown's forecasting procedures are optimal in terms of achieving minimum mean square error forecasts only if the underlying stochastic process is included in a limited subclass of ARIMA (p,d,q) processes. Hence, it is shown what assumptions are made when using these procedures. (ii) The implication of point (i) is that the users of Brown's procedures tacitly assume that the stochastic processes which occur in the real world are from the particular restricted subclass of ARIMA (p,d,q) processes. No reason can be found why these particular models should occur more frequently than others. (iii) It is further shown that even if a stochastic process which would lead to Brown's model occurred, the actual methods used for making the forecasts are clumsy and much simpler procedures can be employed. 1976-03 published PP-76-004 PP-76-004 2103 public professional_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 26 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book