A Social Security Forecasting and Simulation Model

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4657 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4657 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4657 archive 351 disk0/00/00/61/91 2016-01-15 02:12:29 2021-08-27 17:17:13 2016-01-15 02:12:29 monograph show 2 MacKellar F.L. AL0956 Ermolieva T. 7638 Westlund A. 7162 A Social Security Forecasting and Simulation Model pub iis_mod iis_ssr prog_ssr This paper presents and validates a multiregional neoclassical economic- demographic growth model developed by the IIASA Social Security Reform Project. This model is intended to study linkages between population age distribution, the macroeconomy, the nature of pension arrangements, the intergenerational distribution of income and wealth, and international capital flows. In this paper, we concentrate on the model in single-region form, showing that: (i) reasonable exogenous assumptions give rise to a reasonable long-run model solution; (ii) when exogenous assumptions or model parameters are changed, the model performs sensibly on a baseline-vs.-alternative basis; and (iii) model projection results are reasonably robust to selection of demographic scenario and exogenous assumptions regarding household saving and labor supply; they are sensitive, however, to the selection of the parameters of the core production function. 2000-09 published IR-00-055 IR-00-055 2146 83 1657 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 56 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book