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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4699 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4699 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4699 archive 351 disk0/00/00/62/25 2016-01-15 02:12:48 2023-08-05 05:00:32 2016-01-15 02:12:48 monograph show 2 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Saariluoma P. 7855 Sanderson W.C. 1631 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 New Developments in the Methodology of Expert- and Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Forecasting pub iis_met iis_pop prog_pop All population projections are based in one form or another on expert judgement about likely future trends, structural continuity, etc. Although experts are clearly superior to lay people in their field of expertise, when it comes to forecasting they may make serious errors and can be as ignorant as anybody. In the context of expert-based probabilistic population projections, this issue is receiving even more attention. In this paper we argue that information about the future cannot be true for the reason that it is being presented by an acknowledged authority (institution or person), nor is it acceptable to resolve scientific issues on the ground of voting or concert. As an alternative we propose the concept of argument-based expert opinion. Under this approach any structural and trend assumption needs to be based on explicit argumentation rather than implicit judgement. 2000-03 published IR-00-020 IR-00-020 190 1546 265 270 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 22 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book