Can China Feed Itself? An Analysis of China's Food Prospects with Special Reference to Water Resources

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RR-01-06.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/59141 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/59141 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/59141 archive 351 disk0/00/00/62/44 2016-01-15 02:12:52 2021-08-27 17:17:20 2016-01-15 02:12:52 monograph show 2 Heilig G.K. 1305 Fischer G. 276 van Velthuizen H.T. 7495 Can China Feed Itself? An Analysis of China's Food Prospects with Special Reference to Water Resources pub iis_cli iis_env iis_fag iis_luc iis_reg iis_wat prog_luc Water is certainly an important factor in China's food security. Some authors have argued that up to 70% of the country's grain production depends on irrigation. Since the water resources for agriculture in northern China are getting increasingly exhausted and diverted to urban and industrial consumption, they have published grim predictions of food shortages. The following analysis uses a detailed agro-climatic model to estimate China's maximum grain production potential under rain-fed and irrigated conditions. It shows that far less than 70% of China's grain production critically depends on irrigation. Large areas in the south and some areas in the north-east can produce substantial amounts of grain using only natural precipitation. According to our model, some 492 million tons of grain can be produced at current technology without additional irrigation. However, depending on diet, this may still not be enough for China's grain demand in 2025, which was estimated at up to 650 million tons. Only with additional irrigation would China be able to produce these amounts of grain. According to our model, the country has a grain production potential of some 672 million tons, if irrigation is available in those areas, that do not have enough precipitation for rain-fed cultivation. Water conservation in irrigation and the development of water resources for agriculture is therefore for China's food security. 2000 published RR-01-006. Reprinted from The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 7:153-172 [2000]. RP-01-006 Reprinted from The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology; 7:153-172 [2000] 15 1318 89 349 public research_reprint The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology 7 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 153-172 22 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book