Long-Term Population Decline in Europe: The Relative Importance of Tempo Effects and Generational Effects

7081 18 60890 2 168019 document 60890 RR-04-04.pdf application/pdf c521c31136b60e01944845f5776d2b9c MD5 4075075 2016-06-06 13:10:42 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7081/1/RR-04-04.pdf 7081 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

RR-04-04.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60890 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60890 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/60890 archive 351 disk0/00/00/70/81 2016-01-15 02:16:03 2023-08-05 05:00:37 2016-01-15 02:16:03 monograph show 1 Goldstein J.R. 1533 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 Long-Term Population Decline in Europe: The Relative Importance of Tempo Effects and Generational Effects pub iis_pop prog_pop It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child-bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub-replacement fertility conditions, a longer mean length of generations implies slower shrinking, and thus a relatively larger population in the very long run. This note compares the relative importance of the two effects analytically and with data for the 15-country European Union. It also considers whether an increase in the mean age of childbearing will decrease the quantum of fertility. This question is highly relevant in the context of the effects of possible policies aiming to influence the tempo of fertility rather than the quantum directly. The results show that for the coming 200 years the effect of tempo changes clearly dominates, with the effect of a shorter mean length of generation only becoming visible thereafter. Even small tempo-quantum interactions can overwhelm the generation-length effect. 2003 published RR-04-004. Reprinted from Population and Development Review, 29(4):699-707 (December 2003). 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00699.x RP-04-004 Reprinted from Population and Development Review; 29(4):699-707 (December 2003) [doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00699.x] 10 1291 190 270 public research_reprint Population and Development Review 29 4 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 699-707 15 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book