Methods of Systems Analysis for Long-Term Energy Development

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/759 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/759 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/759 archive 351 disk0/00/00/07/41 2016-01-15 01:44:16 2021-08-27 17:08:39 2016-01-15 01:44:16 monograph show 2 Kononov Y.D. AL0205 Methods of Systems Analysis for Long-Term Energy Development pub iis_ene iis_mod prog_enp A constructive systems approach to long-term energy development forecasting (for 30 to 40 years) is elaborated and the main methods and mathematical models for implementing it are proposed. They are: -- An intersector model and method for long-term forecasting of basic indices of economic growth and national economic estimation of energy development strategies; -- An iterative scheme and optimization model for elaborating possible energy development strategies and comparison of tendencies in science and technology; -- A statistical model for forecasting final energy demand based on existing dynamics of the main indices of economic growth. These models and methods are tested on preliminary information. 1977-03 published CP-77-002 CP-77-002 10 2059 public collaborative_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 38 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book