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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/5139 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/5139 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/5139 archive 351 disk0/00/00/77/93 2016-01-15 02:18:42 2023-08-05 05:00:41 2016-01-15 02:18:42 monograph show 3 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 Cao G.-Y. 1708 Ren Q. 1857 Zheng X.-Y. AL0429 pub iis_pop prog_pop This paper will apply methods of probabilistic population projection forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of China's future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also account for the significant uncertainty of China's current fertility level ( with estimates ranging from 1.2 to 1.3) and the related uncertainties about the sex ratio at birth (with estimates from 1.06 to above 1.2) and the size of the youngest cohorts in the 2000 census. the model applied in this paper will be based on expert based uncertainty ranges for current conditions, in addition to the probabilistic treatment of future trends. Given the sheer size of China's population, these significant uncertainties about current conditions are of high importance not only for the future population of China but also on a global scale. 2005-09 published IR-05-043 IR-05-043 190 270 51 2331 2544 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 26 FALSE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book