Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/5145 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/5145 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/5145 archive 351 disk0/00/00/77/99 2016-01-15 02:18:43 2021-08-27 17:19:17 2016-01-15 02:18:43 monograph show 3 O'Neill B.C. 7542 Ermoliev Y. 1445 Ermolieva T. 7638 Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis pub iis_cli iis_das iis_luc iis_rsp prog_luc prog_pcc We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- and CVaR-type risk measures. Combined with explicit introduction of "safety" constraints, it creates a "hit-or-miss" type decision-making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less-or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties. 2005-10 published IR-05-037 IR-05-037 1492 338 83 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 20 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book