Socio-economic and Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Integrated Assessment

7836 10 5189 1 13025 document 5189 RP-05-008.pdf application/pdf 7285831052593577c0b77bbe93cdb033 MD5 1839917 2016-01-15 02:18:58 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7836/1/RP-05-008.pdf 7836 1 1 text en public

RP-05-008.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/5189 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/5189 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/5189 archive 351 disk0/00/00/78/36 2016-01-15 02:18:58 2021-08-27 17:19:22 2016-01-15 02:18:58 monograph show 2 Fischer G. 276 Shah M.M. 734 Tubiello F.N. 7933 van Velthuizen H.T. 7495 Socio-economic and Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Integrated Assessment pub iis_luc iis_cli prog_luc Agriculture; Crop production; Climate change; Food security; sub-Saharan Africa; Risk of hunger A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro- ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological- economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5?W5? latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio- economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. 2005-11 published RP-05-008. Reprinted from Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360(1463):2067-2083 (29 November 2005). 10.1098/rstb.2005.1744 RP-05-008 Reprinted from Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences; 360(1463):2067-2083 (29 November 2005) [doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1744] 10 89 1567 1623 349 public research_reprint Philisophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360 1463 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 2067-2083 23 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book