Average Remaining Lifetimes Can Increase as Human Populations Age

7838 10 58752 2 164859 document 58752 RP-05-006.pdf application/pdf 404b336ed3c6f436e8fe3987f885fb99 MD5 3838479 2016-06-01 08:26:36 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7838/1/RP-05-006.pdf 7838 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

RP-05-006.pdf

published 58927 2 165095 document 58927 lightbox.jpg image/png 8bd2baaefa3f28a5c1caff103cf8241e MD5 12886 2016-06-01 09:37:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7838/2/lightbox.jpg 7838 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/58752 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/58752 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/58752 archive 351 disk0/00/00/78/38 2016-01-15 02:18:58 2021-08-27 17:19:22 2016-01-15 02:18:58 monograph show 2 Sanderson W.C. 1631 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 Average Remaining Lifetimes Can Increase as Human Populations Age pub iis_pop prog_pop Increases in median ages, the most commonly used measure of population ageing, are rapid in today's wealthier countries, and population ageing is widely considered to be a significant challenge to the well-being of citizens there. Conventional measures of age count years since birth; however, as lives lengthen, we need to think of age also in terms of years left until death or in proportion to the expanding lifespan. Here we propose a new measure of ageing: the median age of the population standardized for expected remaining years of life. We show, using historical data and forecasts for Germany, Japan and the United States, that although these populations will be growing older, as measured by their median ages, they will probably experience periods in which they grow younger, as measured by their standardized median ages. Furthermore, we provide forecasts for these countries of the old-age dependency ratio rescaled for increases in life expectancy at birth. These ratios are forecasted to change much less than their unscaled counterparts, and also exhibit periods when the population is effectively growing younger. 2005 published RP-05-006. Reprinted from Nature, 435(7043):811-813 (9 June 2005). 10.1038/nature03593 RP-05-006 Reprinted from Nature; 435(7043):811-813 (9 June 2005) [doi:10.1038/nature03593] 10 265 270 public research_reprint Nature 435 7043 IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 811-813 10 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book