Wedge decomposition analysis: Application to SRES and post-SRES scenarios

8009 10 112231 2 338910 document 112231 GHGT8-2006_Greenblatt_Socolow_Riahi_wedges.pdf application/pdf 4d472956dec3e3c8a2b03cdf9125a41e MD5 594967 2026-01-07 09:50:07 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8009/1/GHGT8-2006_Greenblatt_Socolow_Riahi_wedges.pdf 8009 1 1 application/pdf text en public

GHGT8-2006_Greenblatt_Socolow_Riahi_wedges.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112231 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112231 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112231 archive 351 disk0/00/00/80/09 2016-01-15 08:38:49 2026-01-07 09:53:03 2016-01-15 08:38:49 conference_item show 2 Greenblatt J.B. Socolow R.H. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Wedge decomposition analysis: Application to SRES and post-SRES scenarios pub iis_ene iis_mod prog_ene prog_tnt carbon dioxide (CO2), climate change, stabilization wedge, SRES, non-fossil energy We introduce a general methodology for displaying the gross assumptions behind any carbon emissions trajectory, relative to a reference trajectory, and we apply this methodology to a limited number of IPCC SRES scenarios. These scenarios have been used widely for climate change analysis. We examine four scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, B2) together with three paired “post-SRES” scenarios that achieve CO2 stabilization at 550 ppm by 2100. Our analysis is guided by the concept of the “stabilization wedge” introduced in a recent paper by Pacala and Socolow, which measures the quantitative contributions of specific technologies and strategies over the next 50 years in units of 1 GtC/yr reductions in 2050. We find that autonomous carbon-emissions reduction activity in the SRES scenarios account for a large number of “virtual” wedges, ranging from 8 to 35 in 2050. Roughly half of the virtual wedges in each scenario is due to energy efficiency improvements and structural change in the economy; most of the remaining half is due to high penetrations of non-fossil energy technologies. Post-SRES scenarios require only 2 to 4 “real” wedges in 2050, accounted for largely by greater non-fossil energy, greater energy efficiency, and CO2 sequestration. Our results reveal that the SRES and post-SRES scenarios share a number of common assumptions. In particular we find that the baseline development path, i.e., the number of virtual wedges and “autonomous” trends in absence of any climate policies, play a central role in determining the mitigation effort needed for achieving climate stabilization. 2006 published XP-06-008 In: The 8th Greenhouse Gas Technology Conference ((GHGT8); 9-22 June 2006, Trondheim, Norway 250 public paper The 8th Greenhouse Gas Technology Conference (GHGT8) Trondheim, Norway 9-22 June 2006 conference FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject