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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13081 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13081 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13081 archive 351 disk0/00/00/80/82 2016-01-15 08:39:10 2021-08-27 17:19:43 2016-01-15 08:39:10 monograph show 2 O'Neill B.C. 7542 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 pub iis_mod iis_pop prog_pcc The United Nations provides the most comprehensive and widely used projections of urbanization at the national level, based on a method that projects differences in urban and rural growth rates over time. Taking the case of China as an illustration, we use a multi-state model to explore the implications of this projection for rural-urban migration, its plausibility, and the uncertainty associated with it. We find net that the UN urbanization projection implies a net rural-urban migration path of just over 10 million per year for the next 20 years, followed by a substantial decline over the 2020s. We also find that alternative migration scenarios can produce a wide range of outcomes for urbanization and for the age structures of rural and urban populations, suggesting that urbanization projections that reflect a full range of uncertainty are desirable. Given the range of possible outcomes for rural and urban age structures - some of which are unlikely or infeasible - it appears advisable that urbanization projections should explicitly model these populations and the age structure of migration. 2006-03 published IR-06-012 IR-06-012 1492 270 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 21 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book