A tale of two cycles - Distinguishing quasi-cycles and limit cycles in finite predator-prey populations

8171 7 68210 2 188466 document 68210 A tale of two cycles – distinguishing quasi-cycles and limit cycles in finite predator–prey populations.pdf application/pdf 8f3b43a6d207903a3492dc45981f2a6f MD5 533389 2016-07-26 09:06:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8171/1/A%20tale%20of%20two%20cycles%20%E2%80%93%20distinguishing%20quasi-cycles%20and%20limit%20cycles%20in%20finite%20predator%E2%80%93prey%20populations.pdf 8171 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

A tale of two cycles – distinguishing quasi-cycles and limit cycles in finite predator–prey populations.pdf

published 68211 2 188469 document 68211 lightbox.jpg image/png 3c77c3d143a4e98a261c511d3f97cf8f MD5 48559 2016-07-26 09:06:26 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8171/2/lightbox.jpg 8171 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/68210 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/68210 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/68210 archive 351 disk0/00/00/81/71 2016-01-15 08:39:34 2021-08-27 17:19:48 2016-01-15 08:39:34 article show Pineda-Krch M. Blok H.J. Dieckmann U. 1668 0000-0001-7089-0393 Doebeli M. A tale of two cycles - Distinguishing quasi-cycles and limit cycles in finite predator-prey populations pub iis_ecl prog_eep Periodic predator-prey dynamics in constant environments are usually taken as indicative of deterministic limit cycles. It is known, however, that demographic stochasticity in finite populations can also give rise to regular population cycles, even when the corresponding deterministic models predict a stable equilibrium. Specifically, such quasi-cycles are expected in stochastic versions of deterministic models exhibiting equilibrium dynamics with weakly damped oscillations. The existence of quasi-cycles substantially expands the scope for natural patterns of periodic population oscillations caused by ecological interactions, thereby complicating the conclusive interpretation of such patterns. Here we show how to distinguish between quasi-cycles and noisy limit cycles based on observing changing population sizes in predator-prey populations. We start by confirming that both types of cycle can occur in the individual-based version of a widely used class of deterministic predator-prey model. We then show that it is feasible and straightforward to accurately distinguish between the two types of cycle through the combined analysis of autocorrelations and marginal distributions of population sizes. Finally, by confronting these results with real ecological time series, we demonstrate that by using our methods even short and imperfect time series allow quasi-cycles and limit cycles to be distinguished reliably. 2007-01 published Wiley-Blackwell 10.1111/j.2006.0030-1299.14940.x XJ-07-053 Oikos; 116(1):53-64 (January 2007) (Published online 4 October 2006) [doi:10.1111/j.2006.0030-1299.14940.x]. Also available as IIASA Interim Report IR-06-040 <www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-06-040.pdf> 66 public Oikos 116 1 53-64 TRUE 1600-0706 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article